The Sustainable Development Goals Synergy-Dissonance Framework: Evaluating Sustainable Urban Mobility in Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

As African megacities contend with rapid urbanisation, aligning transport infrastructure with sustainability mandates remains a critical planning challenge. This paper introduces the Sustainable Development Goals Synergy-Dissonance Framework to evaluate the Lagos Bus Reform Initiative (BRI) in Nigeria using indicators for SDG 9 (infrastructure) and SDG 11 (inclusive urbanism). Using a mixed-methods analysis combining operational data (n = 120 routes), commuter surveys (n=1,000), and stakeholder interviews (n=15), the study assesses the BRI's contribution to sustainable mobility. The findings reveal a synergy-dissonance: while the Initiative aligns with SDG 9 through investments in resilient infrastructure and fleet modernisation, its contribution to SDG 11 remains nascent. The formal system's spatial concentration along major corridors and the incomplete integration of informal “danfo” operators create what is termed the "islands of formality”: compartments of high-quality service surrounded by persistent informality. Survey data indicate positive safety perception (75% rate buses as safe), but spatial coverage deficits persist, with First/Last Mile routes achieving only 44.5% of planned deployment. Affordability perception (72% of the respondents find fares affordable) masks distributional concerns, as the survey sampled only BRI users, potentially excluding the poorest commuters. The framework identifies ways, through the Synergy Bridge spatial strategies, to expand feeder coverage, promote pro-poor financing, and integrate the informal sector. This paper contributes a replicable evaluative tool for Global South planners, suggesting that sustainable transport requires frameworks accounting for both technical efficiency and the socioeconomic relations of the urban poor.