Fuzzy Synthetic Assessment of Overall Risk Level of Build-Operate-Transfer Highway Projects in Nigeria

Abstract

Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) is one of the most popular Private Finance Initiatives (PFI) models for the provision of highways in Nigeria. Private investors are however reluctant to invest in the BOT highway industry. This paper assesses how risky the BOT highway industry in Nigeria is to the stakeholders. This study's population includes important players such as public sector entities (government agencies), quantity surveyors, highway engineers, registered contractors, concessionaires, and selected financial institutions who are active participants in the BOT highway projects sector in Nigeria. The study was conducted in Lagos and Abuja. Respondents were administered one hundred and ten (110) questionnaires using stratified random sampling. The study adopted this sampling method due to the number of different participants involved and the number of cities the participants were located. The questionnaires were administered personally by the researchers. The analysis was carried out using 72 valid questionnaires as returned from the survey. The study used Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation (FSE) with the aid of MATLAB 2023a for data analysis. The experts in the study classified twenty-one (21) risks as significant. The analysis found that the overall risk level for BOT highway projects is high (3.850 out of 5.000). However, this study dispelled the myth that the BOT highway sector is a no-go area. The study suggested that stakeholders must collaborate to enhance the BOT highway sector, which has underperformed expectations.